Live and Learn

My Monday column was due on Sunday at 6pm, so I had to turn it in before the end of the Maryland-Ohio State game. I had more or less told myself that:

1. Maryland would win that game, even when down in the closing minutes.
2. If Maryland won, I'd move them to the last 1-seed over SDSU, since they'd be the best team in the best conference.

Well, I was wrong about the outcome, and I turned in my bracket (the one I posted here Sunday night) about 15 minutes before Ohio State finished them off. This means that Maryland was not going to be a 1 (at least not yet). So there it is.

I was eager to see what the bracketology "community" would say about who'd be the fourth 1-seed and once again, I was wrong. I thought a bad home loss would knock SDSU off the top line, and that the next in line would be Maryland (with a win) or Dayton (if the Terps lost). Apparently not, since Duke remained the 5th team on the Matrix and the Aztecs stayed the fourth 1-seed.

I'm not complaining, mind you. I know it's not the same as seeing Hofstra or Valparaiso in the top lines, since the A-10 and Mountain West are those "tweener" conferences (not "power" conferences but a cut well above even the best mids), but I love seeing the Aztecs and Flyers that high. (Gonzaga too, but I'm used to that.) I'm still concerned, though, that the bias in favor of the power conferences will continue down on the bubble. ETSU and Northern Iowa better not leave it up to the Committee. Neither should Liberty for that matter. The power conferences have such an advantage in SOS.

What I'm struggling with now is Duke's power numbers (SOR, BPI, etc.) vs their pretty ugly trio of losses to SFA, Clemson and now Wake. Yeah, they beat Kansas, but that was November. Wake and Clemson were this month. Are they a 3 now? Or are their metrics going to keep them a 2? Also, can Dayton rise any higher out of the A-10?

Getting back to Maryland for a minute, I made the mistake I made in last year's final bracket again. I elevated Michigan State over Gonzaga to the top line because they won the regular season and conference tourney out of a really strong conference. I was wrong. And I bet I'd have been wrong about Maryland too. What I have to remember is that the Committee isn't looking at conferences or conference tournaments. They're looking at who you played, who you beat, home/neutral/road, and where are you rated in the metrics. To them, Sparty wasn't a "conference champion" but rather a team that was rated so high in the metrics and beat these teams while losing to those teams. Same with Maryland.

Anyway, my next bracket will correct for all this. I still think Maryland's a solid 2, a loss to a good conference foe (and a likely 7-8 seed or so) on the road shouldn't knock them off that line. I think SDSU is another loss away from the 2-line. I think Dayton is now next in line. And it's going to be a crazy final few weeks.