On Saturday the Committee will reveal their top 16 teams. Here's my predictions:
HOUSTON INDIANAPOLIS LOS ANGELES NEW YORK CITY
Baylor Kansas Gonzaga San Diego State
Dayton Duke West Virginia Louisville
Maryland Villanova Florida State Seton Hall
Butler Oregon Creighton Auburn
I don't think there's much debate regarding the top two seed lines. You can quibble about the order if you like. I put Gonzaga ahead of SD State because their rankings were just a little better and they had a better "best win". That's a tough case, though, since whoever's first stays on the West Coast. It might almost be better for one of them to get a 2-seed instead, so they can stay out that way.
Louisville is my top 2-seed. I put them before Duke because of the head to head victory (I know the Committee doesn't take that into account, but it's a huge win for the Cardinals) and because of Duke's loss to SFA. Dayton comes in next but even if they keep winning they could be passed by West Virginia, as the Mountaineers have the tougher schedule and dates with Baylor (twice) and Kansas coming up.
Maryland is my top 3-seed, but after that it started to get tough. Florida State and Seton Hall are probably in good shape, but I had a hard time with Villanova. I think between their schedule and rankings they deserve the last 3 spot. They don't have any losses outside of the top 25 in NET, and they beat Kansas. I'll hang my hat on that for now.
The fours are also mostly solid. Auburn just has the two losses but lacks that huge win. They're 6th in SOR, though, so I suppose they could be even higher than this. Butler and Oregon fit as 4's too. The upset here might be Creighton, or more accurately, the absence of Michigan State. Where's Sparty? They're top 9 in BPI, POM and SAG. But they have an SOS of 57, they're well below the other 4's (including Creighton) in SOR, and they have 7 losses. I don't think they'll be rewarded with a 4-seed at this time.
I picked Creighton over Iowa and Penn State (LSU eliminated itself by losing to Vanderbilt... I think). Penn State's numbers are good across the board... except SOS. Iowa also trails Creighton by a long ways in SOS. And Creighton has zero losses outside of Quad 1 while Iowa and PSU have two each. Some might call it a reach but I'm sticking by it. Lunardi has the Bluejays as a 6, and they're coming off their worst loss of the season to Providence (worst by NET, that is), but the Bracket Matrix had them as the top 5-seed before the loss to the Friars, so let's see what happens.
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