So I updated this week's bracket and we took a longer look at the Bubble. The Observer article is available at https://www.observertoday.com/sports/local-sports/2020/02/a-closer-look-at-the-bubble-teams/.
The bubble is very much in the eye of the beholder, but my goal isn't to put out there who I think deserves to be in the tournament. It's to project who the Committee will put in. In my wish-bracket, teams like Georgetown and NC State would be replaced by the likes of East Tennessee State and Liberty. I am a big believer in giving mid-major programs more opportunities. So-so major conference schools have tons of chances to win big games, and the Committee, by telling schools how much SOS matters, is creating a situation where power conference schools have no incentive to play the mid-majors. NC State was left out last year because they had a non-conference schedule of cupcakes, but if teams stop playing the cupcakes, we'll see only the power conference teams in the tournament. I for one don't need a .500 Minnesota team in the tournament while ETSU heads to the NIT (no offense, Gophers fans... that's not a knock on Minnesota, but rather a knock on high loss major conference bubble teams in general).
In such games, the power conference team can only have a negative result. For instance, Syracuse beating Buffalo won't help Syracuse's cause much, but Buffalo beating Syracuse will seriously boos Buffalo's profile at the same time that it punishes Syracuse for a "bad loss." I don't have an answer to this situation, I just don't like it.
Anyway, I expect Cincinnati, Indiana and Virginia to hold on to their spots or move up, and I think Georgetown will fall below the cut line. Not sure about NC State and Arkansas at this point. The Wolfpack sure have improved their lot from last year, but they got away with one when Elijah Hughes missed their game at Syracuse. He likely would've been the difference maker in a close SU loss.
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