Sunday, March 14, 2021

Seed list by region

 And if you want to see the list by region:

1 GONZAGA Baylor ILLINOIS Michigan

2 Iowa         Ohio State HOUSTON ALABAMA

3 TEXAS         Arkansas Oklahoma State Kansas

4 Virginia         Purdue Florida State West Virginia

5 Villanova Tennessese Creighton Colorado

6 LSU         USC Wisconsin BYU

7 SAN DIEGO STATE Texas Tech Oregon LOYOLA CHICAGO

8 North Carolina Connecticut Oklahoma Clemson

9 Florida GEORGIA TECH Missouri ST. BONAVENTURE

10 Maryland Virginia Tech Michigan State Rutgers

11 Syracuse VCU UCLA/Drake Louisville/Utah St

12 NORTH TEXAS UC SANTA BARBARA OREGON STATE GEORGETOWN

13 WINTHROP OHIO ABILENE CHRISTIAN LIBERTY

14 E WASHINGTON MOREHEAD STATE UNC GREENSBORO COLGATE

15 ORAL ROBERTS GRAND CANYON DREXEL CLEVELAND STATE

16 APP STATE/TX SO HARTFORD/MSM NORFOLK STATE IONA


Final Seed List and Bracket for 2021


Ok so I didn't do a full-blown update as I went. But here's the final bracket. I'm wondering if I'm too high on SD State and Loyola, but those are good teams that the NET seems to like. It won't surprise me if Loyola in particular ends up an 8 instead. The 8/9 lines were tough to place. I know I violated some bracketing principles, but Iowa and Maryland only played once, and other than dropping them a line (which might've been ok), I'm not sure I had a choice. I know that Wisconsin and Michigan State are a little close together too. Tough to jam these guys in the way it shook out. 

I'm going with it. We'll see. Seed list is below.


Team Conference

1 GONZAGA WCC

2 Baylor Big 12

3 ILLINOIS Big Ten

4 Michigan Big Ten

5 ALABAMA SEC

6 Ohio State Big Ten

7 Iowa Big Ten

8 HOUSTON American

9 TEXAS Big 12

10 Oklahoma State Big 12

11 Arkansas SEC

12 Kansas Big 12

13 Purdue Big Ten

14 West Virginia Big 12

15 Florida State ACC

16 Virginia ACC

17 Villanova Big East

18 Tennessee SEC

19 Creighton Big East

20 Colorado Pac 12

21 USC Pac 12

22 BYU WCC

23 LSU SEC

24 Wisconsin Big Ten

25 Texas Tech Big 12

26 SAN DIEGO STATE Mountain West

27 LOYOLA CHICAGO MVC

28 Oregon Pac 12

29 Oklahoma Big 12

30 Clemson ACC

31 Connecticut Big East

32 North Carolina ACC

33 GEORGIA TECH ACC

34 Florida SEC

35 ST. BONAVENTURE Atlantic 10

36 Missouri SEC

37 Rutgers Big Ten

38 Virginia Tech ACC

39 Michigan State Big Ten

40 Maryland Big Ten

41 Syracuse ACC

42 VCU Atlantic 10

43 UCLA Pac 12

44 Utah State Mountain West

45 Drake MVC

46 Louisville ACC

47 GEORGETOWN Big East

48 OREGON STATE Pac 12

49 NORTH TEXAS C-USA

50 UC SANTA BARBARA Big West

51 WINTHROP Big South

52 OHIO MAC

53 ABILENE CHRISTIAN Southland

54 LIBERTY Atlantic Sun

55 COLGATE Patriot

56 UNC GREENSBORO Southern

57 MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley

58 EASTERN WASHINGTON Big Sky

59 GRAND CANYON WAC

60 CLEVELAND STATE Horizon

61 DREXEL Colonial

62 ORAL ROBERTS Summit

63 IONA MAAC

64 NORFOLK STATE MEAC

65 MOUNT ST. MARY'S NEC

66 HARTFORD Am East

67 APPALACHIAN STATE Sun Belt

68 TEXAS SOUTHERN SWAC




 

Selection Sunday Preview, Part 1

So I'm going to try and record my thoughts here as I assemble my bracket for the Matrix, which is due at 6 tonight. I've mostly settled on my top 12 at the moment. 

1-seeds: GONZAGA - Baylor - Illinois - Michigan

I don't think anyone will seriously dispute this. Even if Ohio State upsets Illinois today, or Alabama wins the SEC regular season and tournament titles, I doubt it'll be enough to dislodge Michigan from that top line. Which leads us to...

2-seeds: Alabama - Ohio State - Iowa - Houston

I suppose if the Buckeyes win and Alabama gets beat, some will argue to swap them, but I think the Tide has done enough. Houston is really tough to slot, but I think Oklahoma State's loss yesterday will keep the Cougars on the 2-line IF they beat Cincy today. If they lose, I'm probably going to move Texas up.

3-seeds: TEXAS - Oklahoma State - Arkansas - Kansas

This feels right for the Big 12 teams. Villanova's early exit, Florida State's loss in the final, and Virginia going on COVID leave cost us the only teams who were upwardly mobile enough to knock off the Jayhawks. 

I've also mostly slotted in the 12-16 seeds. Bid thieves Georgetown and Oregon State slot in as 12's. I took North Texas and UCSB as the other 12's. One-loss Winthrop has a shot here too, but I think the other schools' resumes were stronger.

12-seeds (all AQ's): Georgetown, Oregon State, North Texas, UCSB

13-seeds: Winthrop, Abilene Christian, Liberty, Ohio

14-seeds: Colgate, UNC Greensboro, Morehead State, Eastern Washington

15-seeds: Grand Canyon, Cleveland State, Drexel, Oral Roberts

16-seeds: Iona, Norfolk State, Mount St. Mary's, Hartford, Appalachian State, Texas Southern

If Loyola beats Colgate, I plan to put them in Iona's spot, and move everyone up one step.

Back to work.

Sunday, March 7, 2021

Seed list March 7/8

 Been awhile. I'm posting my seed list going into Championship Week. Looking forward to seeing how all this plays out. Some thoughts:

1. Still don't think Michigan and Illinois swap spots... yet.

2. Like Ohio State to drop a line at this point. Four L's in a row... and I'll take the Razorbacks to move up at the moment. 

3. Bubble needs to be scrubbed soon. Not liking Xavier or Seton Hall to make it. Wish there was better news for Drake.

4. The Orange probably need two wins to feel safe and would be helped by an early GT loss.

5. Feeling that VCU and Bonaventure are both safe regardless of who wins. I'd say winner gets a 10 seed and loser an 11.

6. Mountain West has a shot to get four bids, but might cannibalize each other. SDST is safe, but Boise, CSU and USU are decidedly not. 2-3 is more likely.

1 1 Gonzaga West Coast

1 2 Baylor Big 12

1 3 Michigan Big Ten

1 4 Illinois Big Ten

2 5 Alabama SEC

2 6 Iowa Big Ten

2 7 Houston American

2 8 Arkansas SEC

3 9 Kansas Big 12

3 10 Ohio State Big Ten

3 11 West Virginia Big 12

3 12 Villanova Big East

4 13 Florida State ACC

4 14 Purdue Big Ten

4 15 Texas Big 12

4 16 Virginia ACC

5 17 Oklahoma State Big 12

5 18 Creighton Big East

5 19 Texas Tech Big 12

5 20 USC Pacific-12

6 21 Colorado Pacific-12

6 22 Tennessee SEC

6 23 Oklahoma Big 12

6 24 Wisconsin Big Ten

7 25 San Diego State Mountain West

7 26 Florida SEC

7 27 Clemson ACC

7 28 BYU West Coast

8 29 Virginia Tech ACC

8 30 Missouri SEC

8 31 Oregon Pacific-12

8 32 LOYOLA-CHICAGO Missouri Valley

9 33 LSU SEC

9 34 Connecticut Big East

9 35 UCLA Pacific-12

9 36 North Carolina ACC

10 37 Maryland Big Ten

10 38 Louisville ACC

10 39 Rutgers Big 10

10 40 St. Bonaventure A-10

11 41 Michigan State Big Ten

11 42 Wichita State American

11 43 Drake Missouri Valley

11 44 Colorado State Mountain West

11 45 VCU Atlantic 10

11 46 Georgia Tech ACC

12 47 Xavier Big East

12 48 Utah State Mountain West

12 49 Toledo MAC

12 50 UC Santa Barbara Big West

13 51 Western Kentucky CUSA

13 52 WINTHROP Big South

13 53 MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley

13 54 Colgate Patriot

14 55 UNC Greensboro Southern

14 56 South Dakota State Summit

14 57 Abilene Christian Southland

14 58 Cleveland State Horizon

15 59 LIBERTY Atlantic Sun

15 60 Southern Utah Big Sky

15 61 Grand Canyon WAC

15 62 Siena Metro Atlantic

16 63 Georgia State Sun Belt

16 64 James Madison Colonial

16 65 Hartford America East

16 66 Bryant Northeast

16 67 Prairie View A&M SWAC

16 68 North Carolina A&T Mid-Eastern






Tuesday, February 16, 2021

Feb 17 Bracket

 

New bracket today. I did adjust for the Committee's reveal over the weekend, but I bumped Missouri for losing (twice). I was ready to swap Villanova for Virginia until the Cavaliers' loss last night, which I think vaulted the Seminoles into a top-4 seed. Tennessee drops a line, and I still like USC as a 4-seed too. 


The tough part comes at the bubble as usual. I'm holding on St. Bonaventure for the moment, and I think both Boise St. and Utah St. both would be at-larges (I made Boise the AQ this time). 


Still lots of time left for shuffling. With all the play-in games being played on Thursday, I'm assuming that all of those teams have to play Saturday/Monday (along with BYU).

Saturday, February 13, 2021

Bracket Preview Preview Review

 So not horrible... 

Per the Bracket Matrix scoring system (3 points for each team in, 3 for each on the right seed line, 1 for being within one seed line) with a maximum of 96 points, I had:

teams in - 15x3=45/48

teams on right seed line: 13x3=39/45

teams within one seed line: 2x3=6

90/96 points.

Where'd I screw up? I had Oklahoma and Texas Tech flipped. I know that head to head isn't all that meaningful but I did think a season sweep would be, and Tech swept the Sooners. I'm not too mad at messing that up. I had USC in instead of Texas. I was sucked in by USC's recent win streak - Texas has a far stronger SOS and way more Q1 games (the benefits of playing in a strong conference). 

The scoring system disguises my errors on the 2-seed line. My line was Villanova-Illinois-Houston-Alabama. The COmmittee's was Illinois-Villanova-Alabama-Houston. Not big errors, of course, and the funny thing was that the committee ended up putting them in the same regions as I did anyway!

So all in all, not terrible. I suppose at the top of the bracket you want to get them all right, but there's some room for movement.

Top 16 Preview Preview

 Working on a new bracket today, but I wanted to quick get a projection of the Committee's reveal at noon today. So here's mine:

Gonzaga - Baylor - Michigan - Ohio State

Alabama - Illinois - Houston - Villanova

West Virginia - Virginia - Tennessee - Texas Tech

Iowa - USC - Oklahoma - Missouri

(Read as a snake - Villanova is the top 2-seed, etc.)


I always use the Committee's reveal to do a "reset" at the top of my bracket, and it's especially helpful to see what they do when you have too many teams from one conference. It was easier this time since the Big Ten and the Big 12 had four each, but it was close (Wisconsin and Texas were 5's for me).

Two regions total 32 in seeds, and the other two total 35 each, so that balance should be within their parameters. It doesn't seem that any are lopsided (unless you disagree with my top 16!).

Illinois, Villanova and Houston are knocking on the door, but I think Illinois and Villanova are next in line for the top line if someone falters. Baylor and Gonzaga probably aren't going anywhere. (I had Illinois ahead of Houston on my S-curve, but couldn't put the Illini into Michigan's region.)

We shall see.