Feb 24 update

So my thoughts on the chaos on the top line will be in tomorrow's Observer column but I wanted to expand on something here.

I went with Maryland to move to the top line. To me, Duke had both the best win but also the worst loss, and actually the TWO worst losses. And they were coming off an ugly loss. The metrics generally favor Duke but I can't see elevating them this week.

Maryland and Dayton were pretty even. Long win streaks, no bad losses (though Dayton's were both fewer and better), mostly even on the metrics. I went with Maryland for two reasons. One I mentioned in my Observer article (leading the Big 10, the best conference) but the other I want to explain here.

We had two mid-majors among the 1-seeds. One (Gonzaga) barely qualifies as a mid, and is every bit the elite hoops program that the other bluebloods can claim to be. The other, from the Mountain West, is on that bubble between major and mid-major conference. Dayton also comes from a bubble conference, as the A-10 is not a power six conference but it's a far cut above most of the other mids. If Maryland and Dayton were to win out, I can't see Maryland being denied a 1-seed over the winner of a mid-major without an undefeated record. The Committee surprised me a bit last year... I thought Michigan State had an argument to be a 1 over Gonzaga. And Dayton is very deserving of a 1 in that scenario. I just don't think they'd get it. They'd get the 2 in Maryland's region as a consolation prize.

Just note that they're dead-even in the metrics, but that Dayton has two fewer losses and a noticeably better SOS. I would put Dayton on the 1-line over Maryland today, but I don't think the Committee would, and that's the game - WWTCD (what would the Committee do)? We may have some tough calls to make on March 15!