As of mid-day, Friday, March 15th.
A few notes about this.
I think Tennessee's loss costs them the last 1-seed. I think that UNC has an easier path to winning the ACC than Arizona does to the Pac 12 title. If Arizona wins and UNC gets upset, they get the last 1. If they both win... it's going to be close.
I think Nevada will probably get passed, by Wisconsin or maybe TTU for that last 5.
I dropped Seton Hall out, did not think their metrics were good enough. I like Providence more than them right now after comparing their team sheets.
Virginia is in a bad spot drawing NCST, a team that's not even really on the bubble. A loss, for me, would drop them out.
Had trouble assessing New Mexico and Texas A&M. A&M has those huge wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa state, but five Q3 losses. UNM has a similar Q1 record, but against less impressive teams, and their overall schedule is weaker (though the Mountain West is a gauntlet this year). I like the Lobos a little better right now and think A&M is closer to getting passed (maybe by Providence? Pitt?). All these teams better be rooting against South Florida to open up a spot, but I'm hoping USF pulls it out... I want some non-P6 schools to get in, and I'm sure a P6 school will take USF's spot.
Hardest to leave out is Indiana State. I'm going to re-review their case as these games shake out, but despite a strong NET and respectable SOR, they did their damage against Q3/4. Maybe they'll get a break like Belmont did a few years back...
I feel like a few high-NET teams are going to get the shaft. Villanova, ISU, maybe UNM, possibly Colorado... and we'll be talking about the NET needing an overhaul. Dayton has the NET of a six-seed, but their lack of quality wins and uneven finish will push them down to the 8/9 game.
