So I DID notice that my first four out (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas) had more Q1 wins than my last four in (UNC, GA, Boise and Xavier). It's hard to put the Tar Heels and Bulldogs in based on that, especially with Georgia's weak road record. But their overall resumes (KPI/SOR/WAB) were better than the others at the cut line. Texas is just 3 games over .500 and 5-11 in the SEC. Not good enough. Oklahoma is 4-12 in the SEC. Not good enough. Nebraska's omission might surprise some people, and I know that the Committee won't (directly) compare conference records to one another, but all of their metrics seemed worse to me than Ohio State and Indiana.
In two weeks I think Ohio State will be out unless they win like three in a row before losing in the B10 tourney. If Nebraska upsets them on the road, I'll probably swap them right away. OSU is just 3 games over .500 which usually isn't good enough even with good metrics.
I also think Arkansas has a good shot to prove this bracket wrong and play their way in. They get shots at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Win both and that's probably enough. But get swept and it's over anyway. A split will require a couple wins at the SEC tourney.
Xavier's on a win streak and their SOR stood out against others on the cut line. Just one Q1 win, but to me I liked their profile just a bit more than Arkansas' and I already mentioned my concerns about OK, TX and NE. With easy games remaining, they could be on a 8 game roll heading into the BE Quarters against UConn while other teams on the cut line are struggling (albeit against better competition).
Barring a win against Duke I'm not seeing Wake getting in. Just two Q1 wins, and they've faded lately. Their quality metrics are pretty weak though their resume is pretty good. They do have three Q3 losses, the most on my bubble.
Boise might be controversial here. Their resume is just okay and their quality rankings are only slightly better, but they have more Q1A and Q1 wins than UNC and Xavier, they're over .500 vs Quads 1 and 2, and they're on a 4 game roll at the moment. Not much margin for error for the Broncs, who would draw SDST in the Mountain West quarters and still have to play a tough Colorado State team before the postseason. Their overall SOS isn't great, but their non-con SOS holds up against the bubble teams. They'd best beat either Colorado State or SDST (in the tourney) to solidify theyr spot.
I'll call it now: if VCU can win out to the A10 finals, they get an at-large. I have them as a 10 seed right now, they're definitely hovering at that 10/11 line but I think their power metrics get them a little push... if they don't do anything dumb before at LEAST the A10 semis.
I'm having issues with teams that are being excluded from conference tourneys. The bottom of the ACC, the bottom of the MAAC, and others are being told to go home, don't make the trip. It sucks. In the ACC it's the conference size, they had to super-size themselves and make it nearly impossible to do a full tournament in that time period without exposing or tiring out their top teams. Just another dumb consequence of realignment and consolidation. In the MAAC it's even worse. There's no reason at all for teams to be excluded - they could fit in the extra early round games. Every (eligible) team in D-I should have a shot at March Madness. No, Niagara isn't making it and neither is Syracuse. But neither should be denied a shot when so many other bottom-rung teams in other conferences get to try. Thumbs down to the ACC, MAAC and any others excluding teams.
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