Friday, February 10, 2017

February selection show projections

Below are my projected top 4 seeds in each region, with city assignments, in advance of the committee's show on Saturday.

New York City:
1. Villanova, Big East (Buffalo)
2. North Carolina, ACC (Greenville)
3. West Virginia, Big 12 (Buffalo)
4. Wisconsin, Big 10 (Milwaukee)

San Jose:
1. Gonzaga, WCC (Salt Lake City)
2. Oregon, Pac 12 (Sacramento)
3. Virginia, ACC (Greenville)
4. Duke, ACC (Milwaukee)

Kansas City:
1. Kansas, Big 12 (Tulsa)
2. Arizona, Pac 12 (Salt Lake City)
3. Florida State, ACC (Orlando)
4. Florida, SEC (Orlando)

1. Baylor, Big 12 (Tulsa)
2. Louisville, ACC (Indianapolis)
3. Kentucky, SEC (Indianapolis)
4. UCLA, Pac 12 (Sacramento)

I bumped Duke up into the top 16, at Cincinnati's expense. I just felt like, despite not losing since early December, the Bearcats didn't have a win on the magnitude of beating UNC and didn't play as tough a schedule. Since 5 ACC teams are in the top 16, I had to put Duke somewhere, so they're out west with a potential Elite 8 matchup with Virginia. I didn't consider anyone else for the 4-seeds.

I was going to swap Baylor and UNC had the Tar Heels won at Cameron Indoor on Thursday night.

I'm keeping the Mountaineers on the 3-line for now. Beating Kansas and Baylor... not many teams can claim two wins of that quality, plus they beat Virginia, so two 1's and a 3 on my chart. I could listen to moving UCLA or Wisconsin up. UCLA has much better big wins than the Badgers, though, so I think the Bruins are closer to that 3-slot than Wisconsin.

I'm not sure if the committee would care that the NYC regional final would be a rematch of last year's title game, or that the two Florida powerhouses could meet in the Kansas City elite 8, or that Kentucky-Louisville could be a Sweet 16 game. Maybe it doesn't matter to them. Looking forward to seeing how this compares to the Committee.

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