Ugh

Well, I'm not expecting much (any) traffic here after finishing in the lowest 10% of the Matrix this year. This was easily our worst showing, and it will probably cost us our place in the top 50% of the Matrix five year average.

What's interesting to me is how close we were to a much more respectable score. We whiffed on Oklahoma State and Rutgers, but nearly everyone whiffed on Rutgers. We put OKST in because of their SOS, and because many of their rankings were quite good. Knowing that the Committee only rarely puts in 15-loss teams as at-larges, or teams that are just two games over .500, we thought that a deep, powerful conference like the Big 12 was what got such teams in. We were wrong, so we lost six points.

We lost four more because of Big 12's Baylor, who we determined would barely hold on to their 2-seed over Marquette. We literally just had them reversed on our seed list (Baylor at 8, Marquette at 9) and that cost us 4 points because that put them on the wrong seed line too. 

And we lost four MORE on Xavier vs UConn. We should not have moved Connecticut ahead of Xavier because the Committee did not have them ahead of them last month, and the Huskies did not outplay the Musketeers enough to pass them. We ought to have caught that.

I'll admit to some brain lapses. We did not like Iowa's profile, but we had them far too low at 10. We also badly overestimated Princeton, because we used Yale as the yardstick and their profile was not as good as Yale (despite the win). But we made too many little mistakes, and we still struggle when evaluating the bottom 15-20 teams. 

I feel like we do respectably - 66/68 teams in, 64 of those within one seed line - for a guy and his kid when neither of us has time to watch as much hoops as we'd like. The science/art of bracketology is getting more refined every year. I don't have the tools or the time that many on the Matrix have, but I still enjoy the evaluation, seeding and bracketing process, and it's a fun hobby to share with my oldest. I love teaching my college course on it (even if my results aren't that great every year). So we'll keep plugging away at it. Much respect and congratulations to those who have this process nailed better than we do, I enjoy reading your work. We'll bounce back next year.