Feb 17 Bracket

 

New bracket today. I did adjust for the Committee's reveal over the weekend, but I bumped Missouri for losing (twice). I was ready to swap Villanova for Virginia until the Cavaliers' loss last night, which I think vaulted the Seminoles into a top-4 seed. Tennessee drops a line, and I still like USC as a 4-seed too. 

The tough part comes at the bubble as usual. I'm holding on St. Bonaventure for the moment, and I think both Boise St. and Utah St. both would be at-larges (I made Boise the AQ this time). 

Still lots of time left for shuffling. With all the play-in games being played on Thursday, I'm assuming that all of those teams have to play Saturday/Monday (along with BYU).

Bracket Preview Preview Review

 So not horrible... 

Per the Bracket Matrix scoring system (3 points for each team in, 3 for each on the right seed line, 1 for being within one seed line) with a maximum of 96 points, I had:

teams in - 15x3=45/48

teams on right seed line: 13x3=39/45

teams within one seed line: 2x3=6

90/96 points.

Where'd I screw up? I had Oklahoma and Texas Tech flipped. I know that head to head isn't all that meaningful but I did think a season sweep would be, and Tech swept the Sooners. I'm not too mad at messing that up. I had USC in instead of Texas. I was sucked in by USC's recent win streak - Texas has a far stronger SOS and way more Q1 games (the benefits of playing in a strong conference). 

The scoring system disguises my errors on the 2-seed line. My line was Villanova-Illinois-Houston-Alabama. The COmmittee's was Illinois-Villanova-Alabama-Houston. Not big errors, of course, and the funny thing was that the committee ended up putting them in the same regions as I did anyway!

So all in all, not terrible. I suppose at the top of the bracket you want to get them all right, but there's some room for movement.

Top 16 Preview Preview

 Working on a new bracket today, but I wanted to quick get a projection of the Committee's reveal at noon today. So here's mine:

Gonzaga - Baylor - Michigan - Ohio State

Alabama - Illinois - Houston - Villanova

West Virginia - Virginia - Tennessee - Texas Tech

Iowa - USC - Oklahoma - Missouri

(Read as a snake - Villanova is the top 2-seed, etc.)

I always use the Committee's reveal to do a "reset" at the top of my bracket, and it's especially helpful to see what they do when you have too many teams from one conference. It was easier this time since the Big Ten and the Big 12 had four each, but it was close (Wisconsin and Texas were 5's for me).

Two regions total 32 in seeds, and the other two total 35 each, so that balance should be within their parameters. It doesn't seem that any are lopsided (unless you disagree with my top 16!).

Illinois, Villanova and Houston are knocking on the door, but I think Illinois and Villanova are next in line for the top line if someone falters. Baylor and Gonzaga probably aren't going anywhere. (I had Illinois ahead of Houston on my S-curve, but couldn't put the Illini into Michigan's region.)

We shall see.

 Alabama moves up to a 1-seed after Villanova and Houston both lose (yeah, the Tide lost but a loss to Oklahoma isn't the same as losing to St. John's or East Carolina). 'Bama has as many quad 1 + quad 2 wins as Houston and Villanova have combined games played in those categories.

I dropped Kansas to a 6 mostly because 1. I didn't think they were worthy of a 4, and 2. there were too many 4-seeds from the Big 12 and nowhere to put them, since 3. West Virginia is ahead of them and took the only slot not opposing a 4-seed Big 12 team. 

I'm keeping an eye on St. Bonaventure. Not sure their schedule will let them move up much, and nearly any A-10 loss will probably push them down to a 12.