Bracket Preview

Well, my tournament predictions can't be any worse than my bracket projections this year. Visitors who read my article from the Observer will note a few changes from when I wrote that article on Monday. Here goes:

EAST: MICHIGAN STATE
I look all up and down this region and I'm just not seeing anyone that can knock off Michigan State or Duke. I can't blame Tom Izzo for being ticked at being placed in Duke's region. I sort of wonder, if they were the second 2-seed, Sparty wasn't sent to Louisville or Kansas City. Either is closer to East Lansing, and they'd have faced the #2 or #3 1-seed instead of the top 1. Still, who's beating them? LSU's coach is suspended. Virginia Tech isn't going to beat Duke at full strength. This will come down to the two heavyweights. In the early rounds, I'm taking Louisville over Minnesota, Belmont over Maryland and then to knock off LSU early, and Va Tech to beat Mississippi State. In the regional final, though, I'm going to take Michigan State. These teams are virtually identical on KenPom, and I'm going to bet that the freshman-heavy Blue Devils have that one bad-enough game that day against another Final Four quality team.

SOUTH: VIRGINIA
I don't like the South region. I don't think it's very strong, and I think I feel that way because I'm not feeling it from Tennessee. I know they're the top-rated 2-seed, and that they were close to being a 1 (I wonder if they would've been, had they won the SEC tournament...?). I liked MSU's profile better. That's why I took Cincy over Tennessee in the second round (that, and the game's like 90 minutes from Cincinnati). And I'm even more doubtful of Purdue, although fortunately for them Minnesota isn't likely to face them. I'm taking an experienced Villanova team over them in the second round (and would take St. Mary's if they upset 'Nova too). K-State will either lose a key player or have him hobbled somewhat. I'm taking UC Irvine over them. Wisconsin interests me, though. I think they should've been a 4, and I'll take them to make the Sweet 16 and give Virginia a run. I think Cincy goes to the Elite 8, but loses to the Cavaliers.

MIDWEST: KENTUCKY
Like the East, this region is very top-heavy. UNC and Kentucky would be very worthy teams in the title game. Houston could easily play spoiler against a young Wildcats team in the Sweet 16. This isn't Kansas' year (watch for a Northeastern upset!) but Auburn could keep up with the Tar Heels (and KenPom has them above third-seed Houston). So both top seeds will have their hands full in the second weekend. I'm thinking this is a chalky region to me - other than Northeastern, I'm not taking any upsets (I'm taking Washington to beat USU on a hunch, as USU seems to be favored by the ranking metrics). The Tar Heels are fun to watch, but I think Kentucky will beat them in the Elite 8. 

WEST: TEXAS TECH
I had a hard time with the West. Gonzaga ought to be a big favorite out here, but I see land mines for them. Syracuse, even without Frank Howard, will be a tough out in the second round. They've beaten really good teams who aren't prepared for that zone D. And even if the Zags' talent wins out there, Florida State will loom (after beating Ja Morant and Murray State, who will win the Ja Morant vs Markus Howard battle in the first round). That's a really tough game - I think Florida State is the best 4-seed (and I projected them as a 3). If they get that far, most likely Michigan or Texas Tech will be waiting for them, two really tough defenses. I am not a bull-iever in Buffalo and think Bobby Hurley will find a way to beat his old team, then fall to Texas Tech. Personally, I think the Zags get stopped by Florida State, and that Texas Tech will win the region. They're playing well, their D is elite, and if any of these 1-seeds is going to get ambushed early, it'll be Gonzaga. Not because they're not a worthy 1-seed, or an elite team. Just because the bracket broke that way.

FINAL FOUR:
Texas Tech vs Michigan State, I'll have to take the Spartans. They're balanced, strong on both sides of the ball.
Virginia vs Kentucky, I'm taking the Cavaliers.

FINAL GAME:
Virginia vs Michigan State: Finally, Virginia cuts down the nets. Only two teams have beaten them this year. Nobody plays D like them and their offense is more in balance with that this year. Sparty will give them a run but I think this team will be focused after last year's disaster and it's tournament-tested.

FINAL THOUGHT:
Virginia's region gives them the best chance of the 1's to break through. Tennessee, if it survives the first weekend, could give them a game in the Elite 8, but I just have a feeling that they're not escaping Columbus. Gonzaga has too many obstacles, and while I'm taking a big chance on Sparty over Duke, I feel comfortable with this final four.

Now watch Ethan Happ blow up in the second round and spoil everything...