March 15 Bracket Update

This will probably be my final update before Sunday's "final exam." Some decisions I've made since last time:

I've evicted St. John's from my bracket. Yes, 3-1 vs Villanova and Marquette is impressive. And the VCU win looks better too. But if I had a committee spot, I'd be seeing the 2-5 finish, the lousy performance against Marquette in their own backyard last night, and an unimpressive NET compared to some other bubblers and thinking this may have once been a tourney-worthy team, but not anymore.

They aren't quite equivalent, but some might say "Why Texas but not Indiana?". Well, Texas lost to a better team in more of a "road" environment yesterday. And Texas has four wins against top 4 seeds in the bracket (albeit, Indiana has three). Personally, I don't think either will make it in the end, and Texas is my last team in right now. But Texas is also a dozen points higher in NET and has Indiana whipped in SOS, plus they're noticeably higher than them in the other ranking systems. Texas has the better argument, at least between these two teams. Might not keep them in though. I can't imagine that the Committee will let in a 16-16 team as an at-large, despite the profile.

I have NC State in as an 11 right now, despite them having the worst non-con SOS in all of D-I. Doesn't putting them in but kicking Texas out reward weak scheduling? Does the Committee think about that?

And I've added Belmont. I won't lie, I'm glad to do this. I've harped a lot about how mid-majors usually get the shaft from the Committee. But if they're going to pay attention to their new NET rankings, Belmont should get an at-large. Furman's a little higher in NET and has the better "best" win, but Belmont has the superior non-con SOS and is slightly better in Q1+Q2 games. Had Villanova finished among the top four seeds, I might've given Furman this spot. But I like Belmont's profile a little better overall.

I need to research why some folks are putting Arizona State in as a rising 10 seed. A 67 NET, a 71 SOS, and two Q-4 losses? Must be the wins over Kansas, Mississippi State and Washington. I've heard that they value big wins more than they ding you for bad losses, but still.

I'm not penalizing Texas Tech for losing to the Mountaineers. They're still a 3 as far as I'm concerned. It would take some shuffling for TTU to lose enough ground to fall to a 4, especially since I thought they'd be worthy of a 2 if they won the Big 12 tournament.

Syracuse holds their 9-seed, I think. Buffalo's ceiling is probably a 6 if they win out and their floor is probably a 7 at this point.

For Game of Thrones fans!

Not sure how much of a Venn diagram we have showing the intersection of fans of fantasy like Lord of the Rings and Game of Thrones with fans of college hoops and bracketology (not to mention my obsession with Peanuts), but I'm in that zone myself. Game of Thrones is easily my favorite work of fiction and favorite television show, and not just because of the hype. If you haven't read or watched it yet, my recommendation probably won't get you to but I'll give it anyway!

So the point here is that, as a big fan, I am a frequent visitor to Tower of the Hand, an excellent fan site with amazing chapter and episode summaries and many deep-dive articles about the characters, story, and fan theories. They are having readers do summaries of each episode leading up to the start of the final season on April 14, and I was given two episodes in the middle of Season Four: Mockingbird and The Mountain and the Viper. I didn't know if I'd get selected at all, since while I visit the site a lot I haven't participated actively in it for many years. Not only was I selected but I also got two of the best episodes in what for me was the very best season of the show (taking place at the climactic end of the third book in the series). I thoroughly enjoyed reviewing and writing about these two episodes.

So if you're a fan of the books and/or show, please check out my review here: https://towerofthehand.com/blog/2019/03/11-mocking-mountain-s4e7/index.html. I highly recommend the site, www.towerofthehand.com. And don't let my poor graphic design abilities deter you.

March 10 Bracket

Hi again, this bracket is being sent to the Matrix tonight. I've made a few updates, but the Liberty-Lipscomb game was in progress when I finished it. I'm thinking Liberty is about a 13. I left out NC State. I'm really unhappy leaving out the mid-majors. Lipscomb, Furman, the loser of the SoCon title game, Belmont... this is a pretty solid crop of mids and it pains me to put in TCU or Clemson ahead of not just some but all of them. I know the refrain: who did they beat? Bid thieves will shrink the bubble even more but I still think there ought to be a way to get these teams in. Am I the only one who feels this way? Indiana is a serious bubble team, having swept Michigan State and with wins over Marquette, Louisville and Wisconsin. But one of those victories over the Spartans was part of a 1-12 streak. Yet it's possible they'll get a third crack at Sparty and if they win... what?

So it begins with Murray State, Liberty, Bradley and Gardner-Webb (congratulations, GW, on your first Dance!). Long way to go!

I keep forgetting to mention that my bracket column appears in the Dunkirk Observer on Mondays so please check it out at www.observertoday.com! Tomorrow I preview Championship Week, and next Tuesday (not Monday) I'll have my first ever tournament preview.

March 7 Update

Going to try to do more frequent updates from here on out, if I can.

Some movement in the last couple days (I think of them more as "corrections"). For instance:
- Moved Tennessee up to the top. Now, this is more a gut call because some numbers (road record, SOS, Q-1 wins and games) point at Kentucky. But the rankers like BPI, KenPom and SOR slightly favor the Vols (as does NET position), so I switched them for the time being. It'll be decided in the SEC tournament.

- I actually moved Houston back up to the 3 line (one spot on the curve). The UCF loss wasn't that bad, and so I switched them with Kansas. Florida State cracks the top 4. I considered moving Marquette down, but liked their overall profile more than Virginia Tech and Kansas State.

- I flipped Villanova and Nevada largely on the Wildcats' win over Marquette and Nevada's loss to USU. I still think the Wolfpack can stick at 6. I like Cincy as a 6 too, but they'll have to do some damage in the AAC tourney to keep it.

- I'm thinking Buffalo and Wofford are just about even as 7's. UB hasn't looked that great in some narrow MAC wins, though they do keep winning. With help they can get a 6 but I think 7 is more reasonable.

-My Cuse sticks at 8 for now, but they need a win at Clemson to keep it. Beat the 3-seed in the ACC tournament and maybe a 7 is possible. VCU is rising here and if they run the A-10 table I could see a solid 8 seed, and a nightmare for an unlucky 1.

- Oklahoma moves up after beating Kansas. I think that keeps them off the bubble. Ole Miss is sinking, though their losses have been close ones so I don't want to ding them too much. I'm pulling Utah State up out of the 11's, too.

- Likewise, Minnesota's win over Purdue gets them out of the play-ins for now. Seton Hall sneaks up a couple spots after beating Marquette. St. John's is hanging by a thread. NC State is in deep trouble.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

2017 Tournament Analysis

I never published this from 2017 but I thought it'd be interesting to see how these predictions went. This is unedited and the results are highlighted.

EAST: Villanova over Duke (watch out for SMU though)
I think Villanova will waltz to the Elite 8. Baylor won't get by SMU, though, and will be a tough out for Duke. Villanova-Duke is final-four-quality.
SMU lost in the first round, and South Carolina shocked Duke then Baylor. Villanova was done in the second round too. South Carolina made the final four. No points, but I'm not sure anyone saw SC coming. Hey, did YOU have a 7-seed in the Final Four?

WEST: Gonzaga over Arizona (and nobody else)
These two teams have a pretty easy march to the Elite 8. Yeah, WV or ND might give Gonzaga a tough game in the Sweet 16, but I'm not buying Florida State. Arizona-Gonzaga is another final-four-quality game, even if KenPom.com would clearly favor the Zags.
The Mountaineers did give Gonzaga a game (losing by 3) and Xavier edged Arizona in the Sweet 16 but got blown out by the Zags in the regional final. I get partial credit. LOL.

SOUTH: UCLA over UNC (with some interesting contenders)
I'm on the UCLA bandwagon. I think Kentucky will have a tough time getting to the second weekend (though I do think they'll eke out a win over the Shockers, I won't be at all surprised if they don't). UNC has the easiest track to the Elite 8 outside of Villanova, especially if MTSU pulls an upset or two.
Since UNC won the national title, the UCLA upset call was off (they didn't make it past Kentucky). Kentucky DID eke out a win over the Shockers, and gave UNC all it could handle in the Elite 8. Was right about UNC's track to the Elite 8 though. 

Here's an error: I didn't say anything about the Midwest Regional. I called the Michigan upset (below) but would probably have whiffed on Oregon.

1. I think Michigan will upset Louisville. The Cardinals are really good and well coached, but the Wolverines are en fuego and I think they'll pull an upset. KenPom would disagree, given that Louisville's #6 over there, but I think "hot" will trump "not hot" in this game.
Michigan DID upset Louisville. Woo hoo!

2. I looked for a long time at Wichita State vs Kentucky in the second round. I mostly think Kentucky ought to win, but these are two top 10 teams in KemPom.com, and it was a tough decision. Nobody should be surprised if the Shockers win, or lose at the wire.
Called the close game right.

3. The chalkiest bracket to me seems to be the West. I could see all four top seeds getting to the second weekend (though I think Notre Dame will beat WV in a slight upset). A Gonzaga-Arizona elite 8 game would be almost as incredible as a Duke-Villanova East final.
Xavier was the only non-chalk winner in this region but lost in the Elite 8. 

4. I am in a pool that lets us re-do our picks once the Sweet 16 is set, for a smaller prize. And if SMU is playing Duke as I project, I'm going to take a long look at that game too. I'd be a fool not to push Duke into the Elite 8 (at least) as of today, but let's see how they look on Sunday night.
Yeah, dead wrong on SMU. 

5. It's not very daring but I really like MTSU to make the Sweet 16. I'm not sold on Butler or Minnesota at this point.
Called the 12 over 5 upset, but Butler beat MTSU handily.

6. I've jumped on the UCLA bandwagon, taking them to beat Kentucky and then UNC to make the Final Four.
Shouldn't've done that.

7. I'm going to put Iowa State into the Final Four. I can very much see them defeating Kansas in the Sweet 16, giving them a virtual home game in the Elite 8... and since I'm not high on 2-seed Louisville and Oregon lost a key player, I'm guessing they'll beat Michigan or whatever team ends up there. Again, going with the hot hand in this region (plus Kansas' history of underperforming and their veryclose wins this year). Also, the Midwest doesn't do much for me.
Shouldn't've done that either: lost in the second round.

8. I think the top two seeds in the East and West would be a great Final Four if it were possible. But I'm counting on Gonzaga to break through at last, despite their SOS, and on Villanova repeat as champions, over UCLA.
Gonzaga broke through, but Villanova, UCLA and Iowa State did not. 

Question of the Day

Please chime in to today's question.

In my previous post I declared Wofford and Buffalo to be equals, and they're just now starting to be seeded near each other (Buffalo has been seeded much more highly until the last week or so). What do you think? Is one profile clearly better than the other and if so, why? What will the Committee say?

March 3 Bracket

Selection Sunday is coming up so fast, just two weeks away! I think things are starting to fall into place now, but there's still a long way to go. I'll add to this post after my Observer article appears Monday at www.observertoday.com.

UPDATE:
So in my Observer article I mentioned Wofford. They make an interesting comparison to Buffalo, I think. Consider their resumes:

Wofford has just four losses on the year: North Carolina (a 2-seed), Kansas (a 3), Mississippi State (a 6) and Oklahoma (a bubble team). Their NET is 14 (!!) and they are 3-4 in Q1 games. They have zero Q2-Q4 losses.

UB has just three losses on the year: Marquette (a 4-seed), Bowling Green (a Q2 loss) and Northern Illinios (a Q3 loss). Their NET is 15 (!!) and they are 2-1 in Q1 games but have two Q2/Q3 losses.

UB's best win (Syracuse, an 8-seed) is better than Wofford's (Furman, a fringy bubble team) but their worst loss to Northern Illinois is to a team with a 150 NET while Wofford's worst loss is to Oklahoma with a 42 NET.

Aside from thinking that a game between these two would be amazing, I'm not sure which I'd put ahead of the other. It's not like Wofford went undefeated in a conference without good teams. Furman (44 NET) and UNC Greensboro (58 NET) are both tougher than Toledo (60 NET) and Bowling Green (106 NET), though Teamrankings.com has the MAC two spots higher than the Southern. If they both win out, I think they need to go on the same seed line. But I also think that both should be safely in the field.

I'll be very interested in how the drama unfolds at the top too. North Carolina is my top 2-seed right now after Michigan State's shocking loss to Indiana. Tennessee's profile, despite the win over Kentucky, isn't quite as strong given their SOS disparity. If UNC beats Duke this week I'll probably give the Tar Heels a 1-seed, but I think it's very close between Duke/Kentucky/Tennessee/UNC right now. If any of them sweep the regular season and tournament titles, it'll be tough to keep them off the top line.