March 3 Bracket

Selection Sunday is coming up so fast, just two weeks away! I think things are starting to fall into place now, but there's still a long way to go. I'll add to this post after my Observer article appears Monday at www.observertoday.com.

UPDATE:
So in my Observer article I mentioned Wofford. They make an interesting comparison to Buffalo, I think. Consider their resumes:

Wofford has just four losses on the year: North Carolina (a 2-seed), Kansas (a 3), Mississippi State (a 6) and Oklahoma (a bubble team). Their NET is 14 (!!) and they are 3-4 in Q1 games. They have zero Q2-Q4 losses.

UB has just three losses on the year: Marquette (a 4-seed), Bowling Green (a Q2 loss) and Northern Illinios (a Q3 loss). Their NET is 15 (!!) and they are 2-1 in Q1 games but have two Q2/Q3 losses.

UB's best win (Syracuse, an 8-seed) is better than Wofford's (Furman, a fringy bubble team) but their worst loss to Northern Illinois is to a team with a 150 NET while Wofford's worst loss is to Oklahoma with a 42 NET.

Aside from thinking that a game between these two would be amazing, I'm not sure which I'd put ahead of the other. It's not like Wofford went undefeated in a conference without good teams. Furman (44 NET) and UNC Greensboro (58 NET) are both tougher than Toledo (60 NET) and Bowling Green (106 NET), though Teamrankings.com has the MAC two spots higher than the Southern. If they both win out, I think they need to go on the same seed line. But I also think that both should be safely in the field.

I'll be very interested in how the drama unfolds at the top too. North Carolina is my top 2-seed right now after Michigan State's shocking loss to Indiana. Tennessee's profile, despite the win over Kentucky, isn't quite as strong given their SOS disparity. If UNC beats Duke this week I'll probably give the Tar Heels a 1-seed, but I think it's very close between Duke/Kentucky/Tennessee/UNC right now. If any of them sweep the regular season and tournament titles, it'll be tough to keep them off the top line.

Feb 24 Bracket

Well, here's another bracket update. This was made before Saturday's games.

One issue I've been thinking about is who could really advance their standing in the next couple weeks. Syracuse and Mississippi come to mind. Despite the loss tonight, 'Cuse has UNC and Virginia coming up, and Clemson will be a resume builder too. And Ole Miss has both Kentucky and Tennessee coming up. On the one hand, neither current 8-seed is likely to so much as split, much less sweep, those games. But speaking hypothetically, even a split will improve both of their SOS numbers, and in that scenario the Orange would have two wins against likely top 2 seeds. A split would give the Rebels some very strong SEC wins as well. Looking over the 7-seeds (Cincy, Buffalo, Mississippi State, Washington), I think a split might move Syracuse at least into that group and possibly above it with a couple ACC Tournament wins in Brooklyn. Ole Miss might not have quite that high a ceiling, but they can certainly climb to at least a 7 if they steal one of those wins.

Wofford a 9?? Well, they're not losing games, and they played a tough non-conference schedule. Ultimately, I'm not sure the Committee will recognize them... but if they run the table through the So Con tournament? Maybe they'll have to. It's not like the 9 and 10 seeds are that wonderful. I hope they get it. The difference between them and Buffalo, to me, is that Buffalo won one of their two games against top teams. If Wofford could have pulled off just one upset in the non-con season, they'd be up with Buffalo.

Does Tennessee's loss today drop them off the top line? If so, does Gonzaga move to 3rd overall? And who moves up? Kentucky and North Carolina have arguments. Michigan might too if they beat the Spartans. Glad I have some time to think about it...

Feb 17 Bracket

Here's this week's bracket, through Friday's games. Lots of Saturday games today, but I'm not sure they moved the needle on my bracket. Personally, I think that if Tennessee loses, they stay the #2 overall seed and Kentucky stays #5. And if they win, I think Kentucky is still in the 5-slot. So I'm okay with this for now.

I'm going against my own "rule" against giving non-power-conference teams any breaks by keeping Utah State in the field. The bubble isn't that impressive, and I think the door might be open a crack since there's several mid-majors knocking on the door.

Feb 11 Bracket Update

So here's the latest bracket. The top 16 reflects the Selection Committee's rankings. There were a lot of Big 12 teams along the 8/9 lines, and I couldn't keep them all away from the 4/5 Big 12 teams. I still feel pretty good about VCU as an at-large, and about Wofford as an 11. The bubble and its underside are an ugly place, so I went with giving the Mountain West a second bid in Utah State.

To elaborate on my previous post, I'm still struggling with Duke vs Tennessee, or "1a and 1b" as the Committee chair put it. Duke's metrics and SOS numbers were almost entirely better than Tennessee's. The Vols' only loss, to a then-whole Kansas team, is about on par with Duke's loss to Gonzaga, and you'd think there'd be some leeway given to Duke given that their loss to Syracuse came with the Blue Devils missing two starters for most of the game. I was putting Virginia ahead of Tennessee prior to Saturday, and I found THAT to be the tougher decision. Don't get me wrong... Tennessee's lengthy win streak and single narrow defeat means they're clearly on the top line. This is a matter of splitting hairs. I think the season sweep of Virginia puts Duke solidly ahead for now, but I'm very excited for the upcoming Tennessee-Kentucky matchups. If Tennessee sweeps, they're a lock for a 1-seed and probably the #2 overall seed. If Kentucky sweeps, they switch places. I think a split maintains the status quo and we won't know until a possible meeting in the SEC tournament which will get the edge. I wonder if both could be on the top line... a 3-loss Tennessee team that loses twice to the Wildcats and a Kentucky team whose only late season loss is to those same Vols.

As my article at www.observertoday.com shows, my son Dan and I debated Michigan State for a few extra minutes. We considered dropping them to a 3 due to their 3-game losing streak. Ultimately, we didn't want to move Kansas up (they had lost four of six) and didn't think Purdue was quite ready despite a 7-game win streak (because of their early season losses). The early season games are as important as the late season games, so Purdue has work to do before moving up, but if the current trends hold up I think Purdue can and will replace Sparty on the 2-line.

I'm frustrated that we bumped Houston and Nevada down a peg this week after pretty much having them pegged correctly in previous weeks. The schedules, especially Nevada's, seem so empty compared to the other 3 and 4 seeds. While I can see Houston perhaps moving up a bit if they can beat Cincinnati (as they did this weekend), I'm not sure where Nevada will find any big wins to lift them out of a 4-seed. I think they've topped out at 4, barring a bunch of teams collapsing ahead of them.

I think my biggest whiff this week was on Virginia Tech. Upon further review, they have good rankings numbers but a really poor SOS and especially non-conference SOS. I can see why the Committee left them out of the top 16, and I bumped them down to a 6 after their loss this weekend. That might be an overreaction, but man, that SOS is bad for a top team.

I'm going to be watching the Atlantic 10 closely. VCU is a bubble team, and Davidson and Dayton may play their way onto the bubble too. I took a bit of a chance on Utah State, going against my theory that the Committee won't give the non-Power Five conference schools any real consideration. This is more of a statement about the state of the bubble than about how the Committee will actually handle the situation, though. The other bubble teams are on their way DOWN, while Utah State is on its way UP. So I went with them for now.

Committee vs Chris

Hopefully I'll have a new full bracket soon, and a somewhat deeper dive into my questions and thoughts on the bracket reveal from Saturday, but for now, here's my top 16 vs the Committee's, and a link to www.observertoday.com for my latest article (to appear on Monday). I don't really want to do a more detailed article here until that one runs, and I haven't had a chance to do a fresh bracket based on the weekend's games yet.

Suffice to say, though, that I'm going to update mine to reflect the Committee's top 16 and move out from there. Lots of action this weekend!

I will say this, though: I did not understand the committee's comment on the show about how close Tennessee and Duke are. Duke's overall numbers and metrics just seem so much better. The Vols are clearly a 1 but I didn't think they were that close to Duke.

And I'll say that I made the same mistake on Nevada as I did on Houston. Had I gone with my previous week's projection and kept them at a 4 and a 3 respectively, I'd have only missed on Wisconsin (who was my first team out) and Villanova (who was the Committee's first team out) and I'd be feeling pretty good. What matters now is to learn from their reveal and make my own bracket better from it.

Bracket Reveal Projection, Feb 8

So this Saturday the Selection Committee will be revealing their top 16 teams, meaning the top four seeds in each region. I'm doing my bracket early this week so I can see how I do against theirs.

I had my son Dan help me out. Dan's 18 and has been helping me do brackets since I started in the 2016-17 season. So when I say "we", I mean our committee of two.

Our first debate was over the fourth #1 seed. Gonzaga won out, but we gave some serious consideration to Kentucky and Michigan. I won't be surprised if Michigan and Gonzaga swap positions before all's said and done (Gonzaga can't afford a loss if it wants to be on the top line). And Kentucky is knocking on the door if either of them stumble even a little bit.

The toughest call, though, was our last #2 seed. Michigan State, Kansas and Purdue were considered. Purdue is the hottest team of the three, having won 7 straight. Kansas had the best SOS by far, and Sparty had the best overall BPI/KenPom/Sagarin numbers by far. Ultimately, we followed the profiles and downplayed recent performance, and left the Spartans as a 2 for now, followed by Kansas and Purdue. I had the Jayhawks as a 3 last week, and they'd done nothing to justify moving them up. Both of those teams lost key players, though, and I feel as though Purdue has a good chance at that last 2.

Our last debate was the last two teams in the field of 16. We looked at Virginia Tech, Iowa State and Wisconsin. The Badgers had the best win (Michigan) but also the worst loss (W Kentucky). Tech had the best profile but has the fewest Q-1 wins and games. And Iowa State splits the difference. Ultimately we went with the Hokies and Cyclones, but Wisconsin will have its chances.

Two tough decisions we made were to move Houston down to a 4 (we've had them as a 3) and to leave Nevada out of the top 16. Nevada has no Q-1 games and a worse loss than anyone in the top 4 seed lines. They may be good, and they may knock people off in March, but we agreed that their profile didn't hold up. I'll be interested to see, if the Committee puts them in the top 16, how they justify it. I'll learn a lot from their explanation.

We also dropped Houston, who also just didn't have the volume of games against Q-1 teams. A one-loss season is great, and they have some tougher games ahead against Cincy, but I'm not sure they can hold on to a top 4 seed if they don't run the table.

This is also why I dropped Buffalo further, to the 8/9 game. If they continue to win, maybe they can eke out a 7-seed, but they're one regular season loss from needing to make the MAC final in order to be in the at-large picture.

That's all for now. Looking forward to learning something Saturday.

Feb 3 Bracket

Hi all, this week I spent time updating a post I wrote last year, so not much to add about this week's bracket. I will say I struggled with Gonzaga/Michigan/Michigan State for that last 1-seed. In the end, I'm glad I bumped up Gonzaga (I did so before the Spartans lost to IU but after the Wolverines lost to Iowa). Though it ought to lift the Hoosiers out of the play-in game!

I held Buffalo steady at a 7-seed for now. Bowling Green is a tough road game. But I won't be surprised if they start falling into the 8/9 range in some brackets, and if they lose again before the MAC tourney I think they'll be on the bubble if they get upset in Cleveland.

Speaking of the MAC, we plugged in first place Bowling Green in a 14-seed for now, as we assume the current first place team will claim the automatic bid, and that's them as of today. This pushed the other teams up, moving Wofford into a 11 and Hofstra into a 12. I also plugged Davidson into a 12-spot as they lead the Atlantic 10 at the moment, and put VCU into a 11-spot due to a lack of better options.

I'm looking forward to the Committee's reveal next weekend, and I'll put up a top 16 projection before the reveal.