Seed List, 3/15/24

 As of mid-day, Friday, March 15th.

A few notes about this.

I think Tennessee's loss costs them the last 1-seed. I think that UNC has an easier path to winning the ACC than Arizona does to the Pac 12 title. If Arizona wins and UNC gets upset, they get the last 1. If they both win... it's going to be close.

I think Nevada will probably get passed, by Wisconsin or maybe TTU for that last 5.

I dropped Seton Hall out, did not think their metrics were good enough. I like Providence more than them right now after comparing their team sheets. 

Virginia is in a bad spot drawing NCST, a team that's not even really on the bubble. A loss, for me, would drop them out. 

Had trouble assessing New Mexico and Texas A&M. A&M has those huge wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa state, but five Q3 losses. UNM has a similar Q1 record, but against less impressive teams, and their overall schedule is weaker (though the Mountain West is a gauntlet this year). I like the Lobos a little better right now and think A&M is closer to getting passed (maybe by Providence? Pitt?). All these teams better be rooting against South Florida to open up a spot, but I'm hoping USF pulls it out... I want some non-P6 schools to get in, and I'm sure a P6 school will take USF's spot.

Hardest to leave out is Indiana State. I'm going to re-review their case as these games shake out, but despite a strong NET and respectable SOR, they did their damage against Q3/4. Maybe they'll get a break like Belmont did a few years back...

I feel like a few high-NET teams are going to get the shaft. Villanova, ISU, maybe UNM, possibly Colorado... and we'll be talking about the NET needing an overhaul. Dayton has the NET of a six-seed, but their lack of quality wins and uneven finish will push them down to the 8/9 game.

	Seed	Team	Conference
1	1	Purdue	Big Ten
1	2	Connecticut	Big East
1	3	Houston	Big 12
1	4	North Carolina	ACC
2	5	Arizona	Pacific-12
2	6	Tennessee	SEC
2	7	Iowa State	Big 12
2	8	Marquette	Big East
3	9	Creighton	Big East
3	10	Baylor	Big 12
3	11	Duke	ACC
3	12	Kentucky	SEC
4	13	Illinois	Big Ten
4	14	Alabama	SEC
4	15	Auburn	SEC
4	16	Kansas	Big 12
5	17	BYU	Big 12
5	18	San Diego State	Mountain West
5	19	South Carolina	SEC
5	20	Nevada	Mountain West
6	21	Washington State	Pacific-12
6	22	Wisconsin	Big Ten
6	23	Clemson	ACC
6	24	Texas Tech	Big 12
7	25	ST. MARY'S	West Coast
7	26	Utah State	Mountain West
7	27	Gonzaga	West Coast
7	28	Florida	SEC
8	29	Dayton	Atlantic 10
8	30	Texas	Big 12
8	31	Boise State	Mountain West
8	32	Colorado State	Mountain West
9	33	Northwestern	Big Ten
9	34	Nebraska	Big Ten
9	35	TCU	Big 12
9	36	Mississippi State	SEC
10	37	Michigan State	Big Ten
10	38	Oklahoma	Big 12
10	39	Florida Atlantic	American
10	40	St. John's	Big East
11	41	DRAKE	Missouri Valley
11	42	Virginia	ACC
11	43	New Mexico	Mountain West
11	44	Colorado	Pac 12
11	45	Texas A&M	SEC
11	46	Princeton	Ivy
12	47	Grand Canyon	WAC
12	48	JAMES MADISON	Sun Belt
12	49	MCNEESE STATE	Southland
12	50	UC Irvine	Big West
13	51	SAMFORD	Southern
11	52	VCU	Atlantic 10
13	53	South Florida	American
13	54	COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON	Coastal
14	55	Vermont	America East
14	56	MOREHEAD STATE	Ohio Valley
14	57	Akron	MAC
14	58	OAKLAND	Horizon
15	59	COLGATE	Patriot
15	60	SOUTH DAKOTA STATE	Summit
15	61	Western Kentucky	CUSA
15	62	LONGWOOD	Big South
16	63	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic
16	64	MONTANA STATE	Big Sky
16	65	STETSON	Atlantic Sun
16	66	Norfolk State	Mid-Eastern
16	67	Grambling	SWAC
16	68	WAGNER	Northeast

Seed List, March 8th

 Here's the seed list for March 8th. Tennessee gets the fourth 1-seed for now, and would be sent out West...where Arizona will be waiting anyway. I'm thinking Marquette holds on to that last 2 for the moment. The Mountain West is good this year and I think SDST will get a 4-seed, but not quite yet. The 12's are going to be a handful this year, as will some of the 13s. I guess that's not really news, but those are some really good teams!

1	Purdue	Big Ten
2	Connecticut	Big East
3	Houston	Big 12
4	Tennessee	SEC
5	Arizona	Pacific-12
6	North Carolina	ACC
7	Iowa State	Big 12
8	Marquette	Big East
9	Duke	ACC
10	Baylor	Big 12
11	Kansas	Big 12
12	Creighton	Big East
13	Kentucky	SEC
14	Alabama	SEC
15	Illinois	Big Ten
16	Auburn	SEC
17	BYU	Big 12
18	San Diego State	Mountain West
19	Clemson	ACC
20	South Carolina	SEC
21	Washington State	Pacific-12
22	Wisconsin	Big Ten
23	Florida	SEC
24	Utah State	Mountain West
25	Dayton	Atlantic 10
26	St. Mary's (CA)	West Coast
27	Gonzaga	West Coast
28	Texas Tech	Big 12
29	Nevada	Mountain West
30	Texas	Big 12
31	Boise State	Mountain West
32	Colorado State	Mountain West
33	Northwestern	Big Ten
34	Oklahoma	Big 12
35	TCU	Big 12
36	Mississippi State	SEC
37	Michigan State	Big Ten
38	Nebraska	Big Ten
39	Florida Atlantic	American
40	Seton Hall	Big East
41	Virginia	ACC
42	Villanova	Big East
43	St. John's	Big East
44	Colorado	Pac 12
45	Indiana State	Missouri Valley
46	South Florida	American
47	Richmond	Atlantic 10
48	Princeton	Ivy
49	Grand Canyon	WAC
50	McNeese State	Southland
51	Appalachian State	Sun Belt
52	Samford	Southern
53	UC Irvine	Big West
54	Louisiana Tech	CUSA
55	Vermont	America East
56	Akron	MAC
57	College of Charleston	Coastal
58	High Point	Big South
59	Oakland	Horizon
60	Morehead State	Ohio Valley
61	Colgate	Patriot
62	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic
63	Norfolk State	Mid-Eastern
64	Eastern Washington	Big Sky
65	Stetson	Atlantic Sun
66	South Dakota State	Summit
67	Grambling	SWAC
68	Merrimack	Northeast

Seed List Feb 16 2024

Hello, first (published) list of the season here for the 17th Seed. Worked hardest on the top 16 and the bubble, did less work on the muddled middle. Wanted to see how the top 16 compared to the Committee's on Saturday.

Here's a link to the list.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M9E9agFaqSsEY9_rzWPfGTQxo66dIAnf7sqRqWuVLvI/edit?usp=sharing

Ugh

Well, I'm not expecting much (any) traffic here after finishing in the lowest 10% of the Matrix this year. This was easily our worst showing, and it will probably cost us our place in the top 50% of the Matrix five year average.

What's interesting to me is how close we were to a much more respectable score. We whiffed on Oklahoma State and Rutgers, but nearly everyone whiffed on Rutgers. We put OKST in because of their SOS, and because many of their rankings were quite good. Knowing that the Committee only rarely puts in 15-loss teams as at-larges, or teams that are just two games over .500, we thought that a deep, powerful conference like the Big 12 was what got such teams in. We were wrong, so we lost six points.

We lost four more because of Big 12's Baylor, who we determined would barely hold on to their 2-seed over Marquette. We literally just had them reversed on our seed list (Baylor at 8, Marquette at 9) and that cost us 4 points because that put them on the wrong seed line too. 

And we lost four MORE on Xavier vs UConn. We should not have moved Connecticut ahead of Xavier because the Committee did not have them ahead of them last month, and the Huskies did not outplay the Musketeers enough to pass them. We ought to have caught that.

I'll admit to some brain lapses. We did not like Iowa's profile, but we had them far too low at 10. We also badly overestimated Princeton, because we used Yale as the yardstick and their profile was not as good as Yale (despite the win). But we made too many little mistakes, and we still struggle when evaluating the bottom 15-20 teams. 

I feel like we do respectably - 66/68 teams in, 64 of those within one seed line - for a guy and his kid when neither of us has time to watch as much hoops as we'd like. The science/art of bracketology is getting more refined every year. I don't have the tools or the time that many on the Matrix have, but I still enjoy the evaluation, seeding and bracketing process, and it's a fun hobby to share with my oldest. I love teaching my college course on it (even if my results aren't that great every year). So we'll keep plugging away at it. Much respect and congratulations to those who have this process nailed better than we do, I enjoy reading your work. We'll bounce back next year.

2023 Final Bracket

 

2023 Final Bracket projection.

Seed list: 

1 ALABAMA

2 Kansas

3 Houston

4 Purdue

5 UCLA

6 TEXAS

7 ARIZONA

8 Baylor

9 MARQUETTE

10 Kansas State

11 GONZAGA

12 Connecticut

13 Indiana

14 Tennessee

15 Xavier

16 Virginia

17 Iowa State

18 DUKE

19 SAN DIEGO STATE

20 St. Mary's

21 TCU

22 Miami

23 Texas A&M

24 Missouri

25 Creighton

26 Kentucky

27 Michigan State

28 Northwestern

29 Arkansas

30 Maryland

31 Florida Atlantic

32 West Virginia

33 Auburn

34 Illinois

35 Memphis

36 Boise State

37 Penn State

38 Iowa

39 Utah State

40 Mississippi State

41 Rutgers

42 USC

43 Providence

44 Nevada

45 Arizona State

46 Oklahoma State

47 CHARLESTON

48 VCU

49 ORAL ROBERTS

50 KENT STATE

51 DRAKE

52 PRINCETON

53 LOUISIANA

54 IONA

55 KENNESAW STATE

56 FURMAN

57 MONTANA STATE

58 COLGATE

59 GRAND CANYON

60 UNC ASHEVILLE

61 UC SANTA BARBARA

62 VERMONT

63 NORTHERN KENTUCKY

64 SE MISSOURI STATE

65 TAMU-CORPUS CHRISTI

66 FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON

67 HOWARD

68 TEXAS SOUTHERN