Final 2025 Bracket

 Thought this would be easier than a .jpg: here's a link to my projected bracket. 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jUCtwW7q5TfG-0WOwFFSccYhJcFVQc5p34r13_Dx748/edit?gid=0#gid=0

The seed list is below.

We moved BYU down one seed line to get them into a Thursday/Thrusday set of pods. 

We bumped Michigan over Purdue late, due largely to Purdue's fade and Michigan's success in the B10 tourney.

We think Drake's profile lifted them above the play-in teams, but VCU's did not - the Rams would've been eliminated had GMU upset them. Colorado State and the other MW teams were all very similar to us, very hard to separate.

We think Xavier needed one more win. They and UNC just didn't have the big wins despite decent overall profiles (especially the Heels). 

Seed List:

Seed List Seed Team Conference

1 1 Auburn SEC

2 1 DUKE ACC

3 1 HOUSTON Big 12

4 1 FLORIDA SEC

5 2 Tennessee SEC

6 2 Alabama SEC

7 2 Michigan State Big Ten

8 2 ST. JOHN'S Big East

9 3 Texas Tech Big 12

10 3 Iowa State Big 12

11 3 Kentucky SEC

12 3 Wisconsin Big Ten

13 4 Maryland Big Ten

14 4 Texas A&M SEC

15 4 Arizona Big 12

16 4 Michigan Big Ten

17 5 Purdue Big Ten

18 5 Clemson ACC

19 5 Oregon Big Ten

20 5 Mississippi SEC

21 6 Louisville ACC

22 6 Illinois Big Ten

23 6 BYU Big 12

24 6 Missouri SEC

25 7 St. Mary's (CA) West Coast

26 7 UCLA Big Ten

27 7 GONZAGA West Coast

28 7 Kansas Big 12

29 8 Marquette Big East

30 8 Memphis American

31 8 Mississippi State SEC

32 8 Creighton Big East

33 9 Connecticut Big East

34 9 New Mexico Mountain West

35 9 Georgia SEC

36 9 Baylor Big 12

37 10 Utah State Mountain West

38 10 Arkansas SEC

39 10 Oklahoma SEC

40 10 DRAKE Missouri Valley

41 11.1 West Virginia Big 12

42 11.2 VCU Atlantic 10

43 11.3 San Diego State Mountain West

44 11.4 Vanderbilt SEC

45 11.5 COLORADO STATE Mountain West

46 12.1 Indiana Big Ten

47 12.2 Boise State Mountain West

48 12.3 UC SAN DIEGO Big West

49 12.4 MCNEESE STATE Southland

50 12.5 LIBERTY CUSA

51 13 YALE Ivy

52 13 AKRON MAC

53 13 HIGH POINT Big South

54 13 GRAND CANYON WAC

55 14 LIPSCOMB Atlantic Sun

56 14 TROY Sun Belt

57 14 UNC WILMINGTON Coastal

58 14 MONTANA Big Sky

59 15 WOFFORD Southern

60 15 ROBERT MORRIS Horizon

61 15 NORFOLK STATE Mid-Eastern

62 15 OMAHA Summit

63 16 BRYANT America East

64 16 ALABAMA STATE SWAC

65 16 MT. ST. MARYS Metro Atlantic

66 16 AMERICAN Patriot

67 16 ST. FRANCIS (PA) Northeast

68 16 SIU-EDWARDSVILLE Ohio Valley

Let's see what happens.

Bracket Day Variables

 Okay, a few variables concerning today's games, most of which won't be news to bracket followers:

1. We'll sort out the VCU situation if they lose. I expect Mason to slot in as a 12/13, probably the latter.

2. Florida/Tennessee won't change their seeds, but if Tennessee wins I'll make them #5 overall, slightly passing the Tide, which didn't have a great finish to the year and got blown out by Florida yesterday.

3. If Cornell upsets Yale they'll slot in lower, maybe a 14, moving the others up.

4. I think the Big Ten result won't change either team's seed. Both are around a 4, though Wisconsin might be a 3 pending further research. Can't see Michigan getting that high and a loss to the Wolverines shouldn't ding the Badgers too much.

5. If UAB upsets Memphis, the Tigers will probably be a very dangerous 9 seed and UAB would be a 13, and the bubble will shrink.

Unsure right now if Mason will be a bid-stealer or if VCU will be dropped, it'll be close. There won't be more than two more 'stealers. If VCU gets in we'll do a scenario for a UAB win and a Memphis win.

Bracket for 3/9/25

 Here's the bracket heading into Championship Week. Note that I had BYU as a 7 but couldn't get them on the 7-line for Thursday/Saturday games, so they got dropped to an 8. I also dropped Gonzaga a line because as I bracketed the teams they were the last 8, and they'd have been potentially playing St. Mary's in the Sweet 16.

As to the teams I left out: I actually think Xavier has a good chance of moving into the bracket. I actually like Indiana's chances of staying in better than Ohio State's. OSU, at just three games over .500, probably is done with a loss in the first round despite their numbers, while if Indiana loses to Oregon, it's not as bad a loss and they could possibly survive. 

Oklahoma, at 6-12 in the SEC, would be the worst team (by league record) to get an at-large bid. It's just too hard to leave them out. Texas doesn't have the Sooners' margin for error - OK would probably be a play-in with a first round loss while Texas is finished with a loss - they're already barely hanging on.

As an A-10 fan I was rooting for Dayton to lose on Friday, but to beat VCU in the A-10 final, which I think would've gotten both in. Now I'm not so sure that VCU has that cushion. If VCU is going to lose, it better be to the 2/3 seed and it better be close. Anything less and I think they're done.

Boise is out with a loss but might need two wins (or a LOT of help). San Diego State may not survive a loss either, but they are definitely better positioned. I just think Colorado State is too far back to be anything but a bid thief - but they're capable of that! If CSU beats Boise in the final, they could both get in, and a couple of bubble teams are in serious trouble.

Other bid thieves:

San Francisco, WCC

Dayton/George Mason, A-10

I don't think the Big West runner up gets in.

Here's the rundown:

1 1 Auburn SEC

2 1 Duke ACC

3 1 Houston Big 12

4 1 Florida SEC

5 2 Alabama SEC

6 2 Tennessee SEC

7 2 Michigan State Big Ten

8 2 Texas Tech Big 12

9 3 Iowa State Big 12

10 3 St. John's Big East

11 3 Kentucky SEC

12 3 Texas A&M SEC

13 4 Wisconsin Big Ten

14 4 Purdue Big Ten

15 4 Maryland Big Ten

16 4 Clemson ACC

17 5 Arizona Big 12

18 5 Michigan Big Ten

19 5 Oregon Big Ten

20 5 St. Mary's (CA) West Coast

21 6 Louisville ACC

22 6 Missouri SEC

23 6 Mississippi SEC

24 6 Illinois Big Ten

25 7 UCLA Big Ten

26 7 Marquette Big East

27 7 BYU Big 12

28 7 Kansas Big 12

29 8 Memphis American

30 8 Mississippi State SEC

31 8 Connecticut Big East

32 8 Gonzaga West Coast

33 9 Creighton Big East

34 9 New Mexico Mountain West

35 9 West Virginia Big 12

36 9 Georgia SEC

37 10 Vanderbilt SEC

38 10 Utah State Mountain West

39 10 Baylor Big 12

40 10 Arkansas SEC

41 11 Oklahoma SEC

42 11 VCU Atlantic 10

43 11 Drake Missouri Valley

44 11 San Diego State Mountain West

45 11 Ohio State Big Ten

46 12 North Carolina ACC

47 12 Indiana Big Ten

48 12 UC San Diego Big West

49 12 McNeese State Southland

50 12 Liberty CUSA

51 13 Yale Ivy

52 13 Akron MAC

53 13 High Point Big South

54 13 Arkansas State Sun Belt

55 14 Lipscomb Atlantic Sun

56 14 Utah Valley WAC

57 14 Chattanooga Southern

58 14 Northern Colorado Big Sky

59 15 Towson Coastal

60 15 Robert Morris Horizon

61 15 Central Connecticut State Northeast

62 15 Bryant America East

63 16 Norfolk State Mid-Eastern

64 16 Omaha Summit

65 16 Southern SWAC

66 16 Quinnipiac Metro Atlantic

67 16 Bucknell Patriot

68 16 SIU-Edwardsville Ohio Valley

Bracket notes for 3/2/25

 So I DID notice that my first four out (Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Texas) had more Q1 wins than my last four in (UNC, GA, Boise and Xavier). It's hard to put the Tar Heels and Bulldogs in based on that, especially with Georgia's weak road record. But their overall resumes (KPI/SOR/WAB) were better than the others at the cut line. Texas is just 3 games over .500 and 5-11 in the SEC. Not good enough. Oklahoma is 4-12 in the SEC. Not good enough. Nebraska's omission might surprise some people, and I know that the Committee won't (directly) compare conference records to one another, but all of their metrics seemed worse to me than Ohio State and Indiana. 

In two weeks I think Ohio State will be out unless they win like three in a row before losing in the B10 tourney. If Nebraska upsets them on the road, I'll probably swap them right away. OSU is just 3 games over .500 which usually isn't good enough even with good metrics.

I also think Arkansas has a good shot to prove this bracket wrong and play their way in. They get shots at Vanderbilt and Mississippi State. Win both and that's probably enough. But get swept and it's over anyway. A split will require a couple wins at the SEC tourney.

Xavier's on a win streak and their SOR stood out against others on the cut line. Just one Q1 win, but to me I liked their profile just a bit more than Arkansas' and I already mentioned my concerns about OK, TX and NE. With easy games remaining, they could be on a 8 game roll heading into the BE Quarters against UConn while other teams on the cut line are struggling (albeit against better competition). 

Barring a win against Duke I'm not seeing Wake getting in. Just two Q1 wins, and they've faded lately. Their quality metrics are pretty weak though their resume is pretty good. They do have three Q3 losses, the most on my bubble. 

Boise might be controversial here. Their resume is just okay and their quality rankings are only slightly better, but they have more Q1A and Q1 wins than UNC and Xavier, they're over .500 vs Quads 1 and 2, and they're on a 4 game roll at the moment. Not much margin for error for the Broncs, who would draw SDST in the Mountain West quarters and still have to play a tough Colorado State team before the postseason. Their overall SOS isn't great, but their non-con SOS holds up against the bubble teams. They'd best beat either Colorado State or SDST (in the tourney) to solidify theyr spot.

I'll call it now: if VCU can win out to the A10 finals, they get an at-large. I have them as a 10 seed right now, they're definitely hovering at that 10/11 line but I think their power metrics get them a little push... if they don't do anything dumb before at LEAST the A10 semis.

I'm having issues with teams that are being excluded from conference tourneys. The bottom of the ACC, the bottom of the MAAC, and others are being told to go home, don't make the trip. It sucks. In the ACC it's the conference size, they had to super-size themselves and make it nearly impossible to do a full tournament in that time period without exposing or tiring out their top teams. Just another dumb consequence of realignment and consolidation. In the MAAC it's even worse. There's no reason at all for teams to be excluded - they could fit in the extra early round games. Every (eligible) team in D-I should have a shot at March Madness. No, Niagara isn't making it and neither is Syracuse. But neither should be denied a shot when so many other bottom-rung teams in other conferences get to try. Thumbs down to the ACC, MAAC and any others excluding teams. 

Bracket for 3/2/25

Bracket for 3/2/25.

Seed list:

Auburn

Duke

Houston

Tennessee

Alabama

Florida

Michigan State

St. John's

Wisconsin

Iowa State

Kentucky

Michigan

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

Arizona

Purdue

Clemson

Missouri

Maryland

Marquette

Oregon

St. Mary's (CA)

UCLA

Louisville

Kansas

Mississippi State

Mississippi

Memphis

Illinois

BYU

Creighton

Connecticut

Gonzaga

Vanderbilt

New Mexico

Baylor

Utah State

West Virginia

San Diego State

VCU

Indiana

Ohio State

North Carolina

Georgia

Boise State

Xavier

Drake

UC San Diego

McNeese State

Liberty

Yale

High Point

Akron

Lipscomb

Chattanooga

James Madison

Utah Valley

Towson

Montana

Robert Morris

Central Connecticut State

Norfolk State

Bryant

Omaha

Southeast Missouri State

Southern

American

Quinnipiac

Bracket for 2/23/25

 Haven't been posting but here's today's bracket. Seed list first:

Auburn

Duke

Florida

Alabama

Houston

Tennessee

Wisconsin

Iowa State

Texas A&M

Michigan State

Purdue

Kentucky

Texas Tech

Michigan

Arizona

St. John's

Missouri

Marquette

Maryland

Mississippi State

Mississippi

Kansas

UCLA

Clemson

St. Mary's (CA)

Louisville

Illinois

Oregon

Memphis

Creighton

Connecticut

Gonzaga

Baylor

Utah State

BYU

West Virginia

New Mexico

Nebraska

San Diego State

Vanderbilt

Oklahoma

Ohio State

Texas

VCU

Drake

Arkansas

Boise State

UC San Diego

McNeese State

Yale

James Madison

High Point

Akron

Jacksonville State

Chattanooga

Lipscomb

Utah Valley

Towson

Montana

Cleveland State

Central Connecticut State

Norfolk State

Bryant

Omaha

Southeast Missouri State

Southern

American

Quinnipiac

And the bracket, which I hope can be read:

The SEC and B10 really complicate the bracketing process. The bubble is as compicated as ever. I can really see why some say you should have a .500 conference record to be eligible.

SEC 13

B10 10

B12 8

BE 4

ACC 3

MtW 3

WCC 2

If you kick out the sub-.500 conference records, you lose Nebraska, Ohio State, West Virginia, Vandy, Arkansas, Texas and especially Oklahoma and their 4-10 record. Some other P4/BE teams would probably step in, but some mids like Drake and VCU would be safer and maybe others.

So there are 7 multibid leagues. If there was still a Pac 12, there'd be 8 (AZ, Oregon, UCLA) instead of padding two other leagues. Other than these leagues, our best hopes for multibid leagues are
A-10 - I'd say if both win out and Mason beats VCU in the A10 final, both get in

American - a bid thief beating Memphis can steal a spot

Missouri Valley - Drake has a good at-large case and if they win out and lose in the Valley final I think they get in.

I think Gonzaga and St. Mary's are safe enough that a WCC tourney loss will net the league a third bid. However, I don't think Boise is safe. The MW should get two, might or might not get a third, and won't get four.

I can't see anyone other than maybe Wake getting a fourth ACC bid, barring a run to the conference semis for a team like SMU or (ugh) Pitt.

I just want to point out that 21 at large bids went to 2 conferences; 28 went to three. 

FINAL SEED LISTS 2024

So below is our pair of seed lists. We have one for a UAB victory (UAB as a 13) and one for a Temple victory (Temple as a 15). I think that the Big Ten finalists will hold their positions regardless of result.

Where did we struggle? First, on Duke v Auburn for the last 3. Very close call for us, but while Duke didn't help themselves (at all), Auburn didn't beat anyone ahead of or level with them (say, Alabama, Tennessee, or Kentucky) so it wasn't quite enough to move them up a line.

Second, on Clemson. I don't think they deserve the 6 I gave them, but their profile just looked better than the 7's. Speaking of which, we had trouble sorting the Mountain West middle teams. I won't be surprised if USU ends up a 6 or Boise an 8, but we decided to level them all off at 7. 

Third, on Washington State. Really, every time I looked at their profile, I saw the two Arizona wins and... not much else. If they end up higher than an 8, we'll know what got them there.

Fourth, TAMU, with their unimpressive overall record and Q3 losses... and all those Q1 games and wins, especially the big ones. I feel like they deserved to be rewarded for the schedule and the wins more than punished for the losses.

I honestly didn't think it was much of a decision at the cut line, and while FAU and Oklahoma didn't really impress me, I'll be shocked if St. John's gets in ahead of them. They're not leaving Michigan State out, and while Colorado lacks quality wins, they avoided the bad losses.

We mostly stuck to the NET rankings for the 12's to 16's. We'll learn from that one way or the other.

Here's the lists:

Seed List (UAB wins)     Conference

1. CONNECTICUT             Big East
2. Houston                             Big 12
3. Purdue Big Ten
4. North Carolina ACC
5. Arizona Pac-12
6. Tennessee SEC
7. IOWA STATE Big 12
8. Marquette Big East
9. Creighton Big East
10. Baylor Big 12
11. Illinois Big Ten
12. Duke ACC
13. Auburn SEC
14. Kentucky SEC
15. Alabama SEC
16. Kansas Big 12
17. BYU Big 12
18. San Diego State Mountain West
19. South Carolina SEC
20. Wisconsin Big Ten
21. Texas Tech Big 12
22. Florida SEC
23. Clemson ACC
24. ST. MARY'S West Coast
25. Utah State Mountain West
26. Gonzaga West Coast
27. Nevada Mountain West
28. Boise State Mountain West
29. Dayton Atlantic 10
30. Nebraska Big Ten
31. Texas Big 12
32. Washington State Pac-12
33. Colorado State Mountain West
34. Mississippi State SEC
35. TCU Big 12
36. Northwestern Big Ten
37. Texas A&M SEC
38. NEW MEXICO Mountain West
39. Colorado Pac 12
40. Michigan State Big Ten
41. Florida Atlantic American
42. Oklahoma Big 12
43. DRAKE Missouri Valley
44. OREGON Pac-12
45. NORTH CAROLINA STATE ACC
46. GRAND CANYON WAC
47. JAMES MADISON Sun Belt
48. MCNEESE STATE Southland
49. YALE Ivy
50. SAMFORD Southern
51. DUQUESNE Atlantic 10
52. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON Coastal
53. VERMONT America East
54. UAB American
55. MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley
56. AKRON MAC
57. COLGATE Patriot
58. OAKLAND Horizon
59. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE Summit
60. WESTERN KENTUCKY CUSA
61. LONGWOOD Big South
62. LONG BEACH STATE Big West
63. ST. PETER'S Metro Atlantic
64. MONTANA STATE Big Sky
65. STETSON Atlantic Sun
66. HOWARD MEAC
67. GRAMBLING SWAC
68. WAGNER Northeast

Seed List, Temple Wins:

1. CONNECTICUT Big East
2. Houston Big 12
3. Purdue Big Ten
4. North Carolina ACC
5. Arizona Pac-12
6. Tennessee SEC
7. IOWA STATE Big 12
8. Marquette Big East
9. Creighton Big East
10. Baylor Big 12
11. Illinois Big Ten
12. Duke ACC
13. Auburn SEC
14. Kentucky SEC
15. Alabama SEC
16. Kansas Big 12
17. BYU Big 12
18. San Diego State Mountain West
19. South Carolina SEC
20. Wisconsin Big Ten
21. Texas Tech Big 12
22. Florida SEC
23. Clemson ACC
24. ST. MARY'S West Coast
25. Utah State Mountain West
26. Gonzaga West Coast
27. Nevada Mountain West
28. Boise State Mountain West
29. Dayton Atlantic 10
30. Nebraska Big Ten
31. Texas Big 12
32. Washington State Pac-12
33. Colorado State Mountain West
34. Mississippi State SEC
35. TCU Big 12
36. Northwestern Big Ten
37. Texas A&M SEC
38. NEW MEXICO Mountain West
39. Colorado Pac 12
40. Michigan State Big Ten
41. Florida Atlantic American
42. Oklahoma Big 12
43. DRAKE Missouri Valley
44. OREGON Pac-12
45. NORTH CAROLINA STATE ACC
46. GRAND CANYON WAC
47. JAMES MADISON Sun Belt
48. MCNEESE STATE Southland
49. YALE Ivy
50. SAMFORD Southern
51. DUQUESNE Atlantic 10
52. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON Coastal
53. VERMONT America East
54. MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley
55. AKRON MAC
56. COLGATE Patriot
57. OAKLAND Horizon
58. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE Summit
59. TEMPLE American
60. WESTERN KENTUCKY Conference USA
61. LONGWOOD Big South
62. LONG BEACH STATE Big West
63. ST. PETER'S Metro Atlantic
64. MONTANA STATE Big Sky
65. STETSON Atlantic Sun
66. HOWARD MEAC
67. GRAMBLING SWAC
68. WAGNER Northeast

I'm just including the "UAB wins" bracket graphics, since they're up by alot at halftime.