FINAL SEED LISTS 2024

So below is our pair of seed lists. We have one for a UAB victory (UAB as a 13) and one for a Temple victory (Temple as a 15). I think that the Big Ten finalists will hold their positions regardless of result.

Where did we struggle? First, on Duke v Auburn for the last 3. Very close call for us, but while Duke didn't help themselves (at all), Auburn didn't beat anyone ahead of or level with them (say, Alabama, Tennessee, or Kentucky) so it wasn't quite enough to move them up a line.

Second, on Clemson. I don't think they deserve the 6 I gave them, but their profile just looked better than the 7's. Speaking of which, we had trouble sorting the Mountain West middle teams. I won't be surprised if USU ends up a 6 or Boise an 8, but we decided to level them all off at 7. 

Third, on Washington State. Really, every time I looked at their profile, I saw the two Arizona wins and... not much else. If they end up higher than an 8, we'll know what got them there.

Fourth, TAMU, with their unimpressive overall record and Q3 losses... and all those Q1 games and wins, especially the big ones. I feel like they deserved to be rewarded for the schedule and the wins more than punished for the losses.

I honestly didn't think it was much of a decision at the cut line, and while FAU and Oklahoma didn't really impress me, I'll be shocked if St. John's gets in ahead of them. They're not leaving Michigan State out, and while Colorado lacks quality wins, they avoided the bad losses.

We mostly stuck to the NET rankings for the 12's to 16's. We'll learn from that one way or the other.

Here's the lists:

Seed List (UAB wins)     Conference

1. CONNECTICUT             Big East
2. Houston                             Big 12
3. Purdue Big Ten
4. North Carolina ACC
5. Arizona Pac-12
6. Tennessee SEC
7. IOWA STATE Big 12
8. Marquette Big East
9. Creighton Big East
10. Baylor Big 12
11. Illinois Big Ten
12. Duke ACC
13. Auburn SEC
14. Kentucky SEC
15. Alabama SEC
16. Kansas Big 12
17. BYU Big 12
18. San Diego State Mountain West
19. South Carolina SEC
20. Wisconsin Big Ten
21. Texas Tech Big 12
22. Florida SEC
23. Clemson ACC
24. ST. MARY'S West Coast
25. Utah State Mountain West
26. Gonzaga West Coast
27. Nevada Mountain West
28. Boise State Mountain West
29. Dayton Atlantic 10
30. Nebraska Big Ten
31. Texas Big 12
32. Washington State Pac-12
33. Colorado State Mountain West
34. Mississippi State SEC
35. TCU Big 12
36. Northwestern Big Ten
37. Texas A&M SEC
38. NEW MEXICO Mountain West
39. Colorado Pac 12
40. Michigan State Big Ten
41. Florida Atlantic American
42. Oklahoma Big 12
43. DRAKE Missouri Valley
44. OREGON Pac-12
45. NORTH CAROLINA STATE ACC
46. GRAND CANYON WAC
47. JAMES MADISON Sun Belt
48. MCNEESE STATE Southland
49. YALE Ivy
50. SAMFORD Southern
51. DUQUESNE Atlantic 10
52. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON Coastal
53. VERMONT America East
54. UAB American
55. MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley
56. AKRON MAC
57. COLGATE Patriot
58. OAKLAND Horizon
59. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE Summit
60. WESTERN KENTUCKY CUSA
61. LONGWOOD Big South
62. LONG BEACH STATE Big West
63. ST. PETER'S Metro Atlantic
64. MONTANA STATE Big Sky
65. STETSON Atlantic Sun
66. HOWARD MEAC
67. GRAMBLING SWAC
68. WAGNER Northeast

Seed List, Temple Wins:

1. CONNECTICUT Big East
2. Houston Big 12
3. Purdue Big Ten
4. North Carolina ACC
5. Arizona Pac-12
6. Tennessee SEC
7. IOWA STATE Big 12
8. Marquette Big East
9. Creighton Big East
10. Baylor Big 12
11. Illinois Big Ten
12. Duke ACC
13. Auburn SEC
14. Kentucky SEC
15. Alabama SEC
16. Kansas Big 12
17. BYU Big 12
18. San Diego State Mountain West
19. South Carolina SEC
20. Wisconsin Big Ten
21. Texas Tech Big 12
22. Florida SEC
23. Clemson ACC
24. ST. MARY'S West Coast
25. Utah State Mountain West
26. Gonzaga West Coast
27. Nevada Mountain West
28. Boise State Mountain West
29. Dayton Atlantic 10
30. Nebraska Big Ten
31. Texas Big 12
32. Washington State Pac-12
33. Colorado State Mountain West
34. Mississippi State SEC
35. TCU Big 12
36. Northwestern Big Ten
37. Texas A&M SEC
38. NEW MEXICO Mountain West
39. Colorado Pac 12
40. Michigan State Big Ten
41. Florida Atlantic American
42. Oklahoma Big 12
43. DRAKE Missouri Valley
44. OREGON Pac-12
45. NORTH CAROLINA STATE ACC
46. GRAND CANYON WAC
47. JAMES MADISON Sun Belt
48. MCNEESE STATE Southland
49. YALE Ivy
50. SAMFORD Southern
51. DUQUESNE Atlantic 10
52. COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON Coastal
53. VERMONT America East
54. MOREHEAD STATE Ohio Valley
55. AKRON MAC
56. COLGATE Patriot
57. OAKLAND Horizon
58. SOUTH DAKOTA STATE Summit
59. TEMPLE American
60. WESTERN KENTUCKY Conference USA
61. LONGWOOD Big South
62. LONG BEACH STATE Big West
63. ST. PETER'S Metro Atlantic
64. MONTANA STATE Big Sky
65. STETSON Atlantic Sun
66. HOWARD MEAC
67. GRAMBLING SWAC
68. WAGNER Northeast

I'm just including the "UAB wins" bracket graphics, since they're up by alot at halftime.

Seed List, 3/15/24

 As of mid-day, Friday, March 15th.

A few notes about this.

I think Tennessee's loss costs them the last 1-seed. I think that UNC has an easier path to winning the ACC than Arizona does to the Pac 12 title. If Arizona wins and UNC gets upset, they get the last 1. If they both win... it's going to be close.

I think Nevada will probably get passed, by Wisconsin or maybe TTU for that last 5.

I dropped Seton Hall out, did not think their metrics were good enough. I like Providence more than them right now after comparing their team sheets. 

Virginia is in a bad spot drawing NCST, a team that's not even really on the bubble. A loss, for me, would drop them out. 

Had trouble assessing New Mexico and Texas A&M. A&M has those huge wins over Tennessee, Kentucky and Iowa state, but five Q3 losses. UNM has a similar Q1 record, but against less impressive teams, and their overall schedule is weaker (though the Mountain West is a gauntlet this year). I like the Lobos a little better right now and think A&M is closer to getting passed (maybe by Providence? Pitt?). All these teams better be rooting against South Florida to open up a spot, but I'm hoping USF pulls it out... I want some non-P6 schools to get in, and I'm sure a P6 school will take USF's spot.

Hardest to leave out is Indiana State. I'm going to re-review their case as these games shake out, but despite a strong NET and respectable SOR, they did their damage against Q3/4. Maybe they'll get a break like Belmont did a few years back...

I feel like a few high-NET teams are going to get the shaft. Villanova, ISU, maybe UNM, possibly Colorado... and we'll be talking about the NET needing an overhaul. Dayton has the NET of a six-seed, but their lack of quality wins and uneven finish will push them down to the 8/9 game.

	Seed	Team	Conference
1	1	Purdue	Big Ten
1	2	Connecticut	Big East
1	3	Houston	Big 12
1	4	North Carolina	ACC
2	5	Arizona	Pacific-12
2	6	Tennessee	SEC
2	7	Iowa State	Big 12
2	8	Marquette	Big East
3	9	Creighton	Big East
3	10	Baylor	Big 12
3	11	Duke	ACC
3	12	Kentucky	SEC
4	13	Illinois	Big Ten
4	14	Alabama	SEC
4	15	Auburn	SEC
4	16	Kansas	Big 12
5	17	BYU	Big 12
5	18	San Diego State	Mountain West
5	19	South Carolina	SEC
5	20	Nevada	Mountain West
6	21	Washington State	Pacific-12
6	22	Wisconsin	Big Ten
6	23	Clemson	ACC
6	24	Texas Tech	Big 12
7	25	ST. MARY'S	West Coast
7	26	Utah State	Mountain West
7	27	Gonzaga	West Coast
7	28	Florida	SEC
8	29	Dayton	Atlantic 10
8	30	Texas	Big 12
8	31	Boise State	Mountain West
8	32	Colorado State	Mountain West
9	33	Northwestern	Big Ten
9	34	Nebraska	Big Ten
9	35	TCU	Big 12
9	36	Mississippi State	SEC
10	37	Michigan State	Big Ten
10	38	Oklahoma	Big 12
10	39	Florida Atlantic	American
10	40	St. John's	Big East
11	41	DRAKE	Missouri Valley
11	42	Virginia	ACC
11	43	New Mexico	Mountain West
11	44	Colorado	Pac 12
11	45	Texas A&M	SEC
11	46	Princeton	Ivy
12	47	Grand Canyon	WAC
12	48	JAMES MADISON	Sun Belt
12	49	MCNEESE STATE	Southland
12	50	UC Irvine	Big West
13	51	SAMFORD	Southern
11	52	VCU	Atlantic 10
13	53	South Florida	American
13	54	COLLEGE OF CHARLESTON	Coastal
14	55	Vermont	America East
14	56	MOREHEAD STATE	Ohio Valley
14	57	Akron	MAC
14	58	OAKLAND	Horizon
15	59	COLGATE	Patriot
15	60	SOUTH DAKOTA STATE	Summit
15	61	Western Kentucky	CUSA
15	62	LONGWOOD	Big South
16	63	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic
16	64	MONTANA STATE	Big Sky
16	65	STETSON	Atlantic Sun
16	66	Norfolk State	Mid-Eastern
16	67	Grambling	SWAC
16	68	WAGNER	Northeast

Seed List, March 8th

 Here's the seed list for March 8th. Tennessee gets the fourth 1-seed for now, and would be sent out West...where Arizona will be waiting anyway. I'm thinking Marquette holds on to that last 2 for the moment. The Mountain West is good this year and I think SDST will get a 4-seed, but not quite yet. The 12's are going to be a handful this year, as will some of the 13s. I guess that's not really news, but those are some really good teams!

1	Purdue	Big Ten
2	Connecticut	Big East
3	Houston	Big 12
4	Tennessee	SEC
5	Arizona	Pacific-12
6	North Carolina	ACC
7	Iowa State	Big 12
8	Marquette	Big East
9	Duke	ACC
10	Baylor	Big 12
11	Kansas	Big 12
12	Creighton	Big East
13	Kentucky	SEC
14	Alabama	SEC
15	Illinois	Big Ten
16	Auburn	SEC
17	BYU	Big 12
18	San Diego State	Mountain West
19	Clemson	ACC
20	South Carolina	SEC
21	Washington State	Pacific-12
22	Wisconsin	Big Ten
23	Florida	SEC
24	Utah State	Mountain West
25	Dayton	Atlantic 10
26	St. Mary's (CA)	West Coast
27	Gonzaga	West Coast
28	Texas Tech	Big 12
29	Nevada	Mountain West
30	Texas	Big 12
31	Boise State	Mountain West
32	Colorado State	Mountain West
33	Northwestern	Big Ten
34	Oklahoma	Big 12
35	TCU	Big 12
36	Mississippi State	SEC
37	Michigan State	Big Ten
38	Nebraska	Big Ten
39	Florida Atlantic	American
40	Seton Hall	Big East
41	Virginia	ACC
42	Villanova	Big East
43	St. John's	Big East
44	Colorado	Pac 12
45	Indiana State	Missouri Valley
46	South Florida	American
47	Richmond	Atlantic 10
48	Princeton	Ivy
49	Grand Canyon	WAC
50	McNeese State	Southland
51	Appalachian State	Sun Belt
52	Samford	Southern
53	UC Irvine	Big West
54	Louisiana Tech	CUSA
55	Vermont	America East
56	Akron	MAC
57	College of Charleston	Coastal
58	High Point	Big South
59	Oakland	Horizon
60	Morehead State	Ohio Valley
61	Colgate	Patriot
62	Quinnipiac	Metro Atlantic
63	Norfolk State	Mid-Eastern
64	Eastern Washington	Big Sky
65	Stetson	Atlantic Sun
66	South Dakota State	Summit
67	Grambling	SWAC
68	Merrimack	Northeast